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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."